GC - Football - America - Gold Cup

The 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup Final between Mexico and Panama at Sofi Stadium. Either Mexico claims its ninth title or Panama wins it for the first time. A sell out stadium will provide the perfect environment for the final, Mexico will feel at home with the stands clearly in their favour.

Mexico was favourite to reach this instance since the moment they declare they will bring their A team to both CONCACAF Nations League Finals and CONCACAF Gold Cup, in contrast to Canada and United States, both send their best squads to Nations League. For Gold Cup, the United States send their B Team meanwhile Canada rested some key players, both nations looking to provide international experience to their youth players.

Yet big doubts emerge in Mexico during the Nations League Finals. The disastrous image in the 0-3 semi-final defeat against the United States and barely winning against Panama for the third place provoke that short tenure coach Diego Cocca was quickly fired. As an emergency for Gold Cup, Mexico brought Jaime Lozano, who had coach the Olympic Team in Tokyo 2020 and claimed the bronze medal.

A solid start with two wins, against Honduras and Haiti, in the group stage brought the spirits high, yet a an scoreless defeat 0-1 against Qatar in the final group match light up the alarms, even if the goal average was in their favour for the first place. Fortunately for Mexico, the United States and Canada ended on the other side of the play-off bracket. Mexico reached the final after winning 2-0 to Costa Rica and 0-3 to Jamaica, showing solid defending and scoring goals.

Panama is reaping the benefits of long term planning, Thomas Christiansen is about to reach three years in charge of the National Team, it has not been a simple affair, Panama did not surpass the group stage in Gold Cup 2021 and failed to qualify for World Cup 2022 finishing four points behind the inter-confederation playoffs, yet he was renewal for 2026. In the positive aspect they reached Nations League Finals, losing in the semifinal against Canada and in the third place match against Mexico.

In this Gold Cup, Panama has deliver a good performance, finishing their group stage unbeaten, two wins against Costa Rica and Martinique and a 2-2 draw against El Salvador. In the quarterfinals won 4-0 against Qatar, reaching a semifinal against the United States, Panama was consider the victim, yet in an equal match it was until penalties that Panama eliminated the United States to reached their third final.

Panama has not been behind the score in this Gold Cup, and has scored in every match they have played, until extra time against United States to take the lead. Yet the element is that they have concede goal in four of the five matches they have played, only Qatar did not score against them. Therefore, Panama has everything to win here.

Some stats regarding the performance in the final of each one:

Mexico has been involved in 10 Gold Cup finals, winning eight and losing two, both against the United States. Mexico had scored in all of their Gold Cup finals until the last one in 202, in which they lost by one goal in extra time.

For Panama this is their third final, lost in penalties in 2005 and in regular time in 2013, both times going scoreless. Something that considering this Gold Cup performance could change.

Prediction
Less than a month ago both teams encounter in CONCACAF Nations League Finals 3rd place match, Mexico winning 1-0 thanks to an early goal and suffered the rest of the match with Panama dominating stretches of the match. This time around things will be different in regards of the playmaking in the field. Mexico looks comfortable and even happy playing, that in words of Panama’s coach Thomas Christiansen.

Mexico’s quarter-finals and semifinals results against Costa Rica and Jamaica provide Mexico with confidence, allowing zero goals and scoring two or more goals per match. In Gold Cup, Mexico has four players with two goals, Henry Martin, Luis Chavez, Luis Romo and Orbelin Pineda provide plenty of scoring alternatives. Still Panama is not toothless as years ago as Ismael Diaz with four goals, Edgar Barcenas and Jose Fajardo with two goals each provide an attacking element that will not make thing simple for Mexico, and has had Panama always taking the lead.

Is the defensive aspect that provide the slight edge to Mexico. This match despite the difference in gameplay from the previous one between them might end with a similar score. Yet Mexico should prevail because of the greater quality of their players and the good momentum, just it might be by a short score and even extra time.

16/07/2023 07:04, read 855 times